分享两篇英语双语新闻材料

什么时候要小孩才算晚？
How old is too old to have children
1.要小孩有最佳时期吗？
1.Is there a right time to have a baby?
即便是现在，高龄产妇依然会吸引全世界范围的关注。然而近几十年来，女性决定生孩子的年龄惊人地推迟了不少，在英国，甚至有全世界年龄最大的66岁产妇。那么到底什么时候生孩子才算太晚呢？
A much older woman having a baby still raises headlines across the world, but over the last few decades there has been a dramatic increase in the age at which women decide to have children, with the oldest in the UK 66. But how old is too old?
对打算怀孕的女性来说，可靠的冷冻卵子技术意味着她们可以等到合适的时候再怀孕。比如开拓好自己的事业，得到收入上的保证，有足够的陪孩子的时间，或是找到心中理想的另一半。
For women who decide to have children, the ability to freeze eggs reliably means they may choose to wait until their career is fully established, they are financially secure, have time to spend with children – or are with their dream partner.
而临床医生认为，随着女性年龄增长，妊娠并发症的风险会大大提升。因此人们也怀有了新的疑问：我现在要小孩是不是太晚了？而不是仅仅依赖冷冻卵子这个备选方案。
As
clinicians we recognise that the risk of pregnancy complications increases enormously as women age. So rather than just thinking of egg freezing as another option, it raises the new question: Am I too old to have children?
2.世界各地的怀孕情况
2.Pregnancy around the world

世界范围内，女性初次生育的平均年龄分布在18-30岁之间。在更富裕的国家，的女性首次生育的年龄要迟上很多，英国的妈妈们平均30岁才生孩子，是全世界最晚的。而最年轻的妈妈们来自安哥拉，孟加拉，尼日尔，乍得，马里，几内亚，乌干达莫桑比克和马拉维，她们的平均年龄仅有18岁。
The worldwide average age that women become first-time mothers ranges from 18 to 30. Today, women from more affluent countries are having their first babies much later, with British first-time mums in the top 30 oldest in the world. The youngest are in Angola, Bangladesh, Niger, Chad, Mali, Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Mulawi, where the average age is 18 years old.
3.冷冻宝宝
3. Babies on ice
英国女性的平均预期寿命已经到了83岁，但女性在45岁左右就会丧失生育能力了。假使一位女性能在25岁时冷冻她的卵子，它无限期地保持在冷冻状态下不受任何损伤，而再次使用时就像她在25岁怀孕一样。这为选择何时生育提供了一个全新的范例。让我们在科学的长廊中踱步，探索一枚冷冻卵子的历程。
The average life expectancy for women in the UK is now 83, but women are infertile from around 45. When you consider that a woman could freeze her eggs when she is 25, that they can stay frozen indefinitely without harm, and on use give her the same chance as if she was only 25 years old, this enables a completely new paradigm for choosing when to have your family. Scroll through the gallery to discover the journey of a frozen egg.
4.难以受孕
4. Hard to conceive
随着女性推迟了她们尝试受孕的时间，高龄带来的不孕风险增加了，此外，她们也要承受更高的流产和妊娠并发症的风险。试管受精的成功率会下降，对自然受孕的人来说，即便她们能孕育第一胎，生二胎或三胎则不那么容易了。
As women delay when they start trying to conceive, the risk of age-related infertility increases, plus they have a higher risk of miscarriage and other pregnancy complications, IVF will be less successful and for others, although they may have their first child they may then have difficulty having their second or third child.
即使从相对年轻的34岁开始，试管受精的成功率也仅为30%，并以每年3%的速度减少。到了女性40岁时，借助年轻女性的卵子来生孩子则是唯一切实可行的手段了。
Even from the relative young age of 34, the chances of success with IVF decrease from ~30% by ~3% per year. By the time women are in their 40’s the use of donor eggs from a younger woman provide the only realistic hope of having a family.
临床医生们很清楚，随着女性年龄增大妊娠并发症会显著增多，甚至可能使年幼的孩子们失去他们的母亲。因此，即便在别的国家有70多岁的女性借助冷冻卵子生育的先例，我们仍需思考这样做是否是正确的，以及我们是否该限制使用冷冻卵子的年龄。目前还没有国际公认的准则，但临床医生和专业团体被要求给予病人怀孕风险上的指导，并分别给她们设定冷冻卵子的年龄限制。
Clinicians know complications increase dramatically as women age, and that young families may be left motherless. So although women in their seventies in other countries have had babies by egg freezing procedures, is this right and should we limit the age at which we can use eggs? At present there is no universal agreement, with clinicians and professional bodies required to guide patients on the risk and set their own age limits for treatment.
冷冻卵子或许能延长女性的生育期，但高龄父亲也会给生下的孩子带来长期风险。此外，即便冷冻精子和卵子可以超越生理年龄的限制，照料小孩要耗费的体力也会让准父母们望而却步。也许现在40岁可以视作新的30岁，但要是否及何时要小孩，不可避免地需要女性，男性和社会三方的平衡。
Freezing eggs may enable a prolonged reproductive lifespan for women, but older paternal age can incur long-term risk for the children. And although freezing eggs and sperm may overcome biological age, the physical energy required to look after young children may be the limiting factor for many potential parents. Perhaps 40 is the new 30, but there will inevitably be a balance for women, men and society in whether and when to have a family.

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大数据能帮助我们预测犯罪的爆发场所吗？
Can big data help us predict where crime will strike ？
1.预测犯罪
1.  Forecasting crime
2011年，洛杉矶和曼彻斯特的警方做出了前卫的尝试。他们利用一种计算机算法，试图在犯罪活动爆发前预测到相应的场所。
In 2011, police in Los Angeles and Manchester ran radical trials. They used a computer algorithm to try to predict where crime would occur before it happened.
虽然这可能听起来宛如科技小说，但警方希望验证，通过分析大量的犯罪数据（即大数据），他们是否可以发现罪犯们的行为模式。然后，他们将在计算机预测的区域布置相关资源。
That might sound like science fiction, but the police wanted to test if by analysing large amounts of crime data, also known as 'big data', they could spot patterns in the way criminals behaved. Then they'd deploy their resources in the areas the computer predicted crime would strike.
警方试图预防犯罪早已不是新鲜事了。在英国，这可以追溯到几百年前。不过，一旦大数据分析可行，这将意味着警方在执勤地点的选择上，不再依赖自身经验，而是遵从机器的指导。
Policing to prevent crime is nothing new. In Britain, it goes back hundreds of years. But if using big data worked, it would mean humans taking advice on where to police from a machine rather than relying on their own experience.
2.计算机如何预测犯罪？
2. How computers predict crime
犯罪数据的模式，模拟了疾病和地震余震的传播方式。
Patterns in crime data mimic the spread of disease and earthquake aftershocks.


以下的这则假设性案例分析，基于伦敦大学学院的研究者们在犯罪数据中发现的模式。首先，一例犯罪活动在一处爆发（例如，郊区的一处房屋被盗）。
The following is a hypothetical case study, based on patterns found in crime data by researchers at University College London. A crime occurs at a location, e.g. a house is burgled in a suburb.


更多起盗窃案发生的风险传播到邻近的区域。这种风险以原案发点为起点，向四周扩散；其中，200米内的案发概率最高。同时，原案发点同侧街道的案发概率也常常更高。
The risk of more burglaries spreads to the surrounding area. It diffuses out from the point of the original crime, with the greatest level of risk within about 200m. The risk is often greater on the same side of the street that the burglary occurred.


案发两周内，后续犯罪爆发的风险最大；且随着时间的推移，风险不断降低。警方可能会在事发区域内配置额外的资源，例如警告居民和增加巡逻。然而，在我们的案例中，另一起盗窃案又在附近发生了。
The risk of further crime is greatest within two weeks of the burglary and decreases as time passes. Police may deploy additional resources to the area, e.g. to alert residents and increase patrols. But in our example, another burglary occurs nearby,



现在，盗窃风险从新旧两个案发点继续向外传播，并在两区域的交界处达到最大值。警方则应该在此交界处集中资源配置，甚至为了提高此处的保护力度，与其他紧急服务部门共享信息。
Risk now spreads out from the new burglary and the previous crime, being highest where both areas of risk intersect, Police can focus resources here, and may even share information with other emergency services to increase guardianship in the area.
3.它有用吗？
3. Does it work?2011年洛杉矶警方的尝试取得了成功——财产犯罪与盗窃案的数目明显减少。洛杉矶警署山麓分局，则继续使用了预测软件。
The 2011 trial in LA was a success, with a significant fall in property crime and burglaries. The LAPD Foothill Division has continued to use predictive software.
英国的试验
UK trials
预测犯罪的试验遍布英国国内，横跨肯特至约克。结果表明，这种“预测性警戒”模型能在罪犯们展现惯常的行为模式时，辅助降低其所在地的犯罪率。例如，2011年特拉福德和曼彻斯特的警方发现盗窃案发生率降低了26.6%；相较之下，同时间段内整个曼彻斯特郡的盗窃率降低了9.8%。
Trials have taken place across the UK, from Kent to Yorkshire. The results suggest that predictive policing models can help cut crimes where perpetrators exhibit predictable patterns of behaviour. In 2011, for example, in Trafford, Manchester, police noted a 26.6% fall in burglaries, compared to a 9.8% fall across Greater Manchester in the same period.
然而，肯特警方的体验则稍显曲折。试验于2012年十二月开始后，前四个月的结果比较成功；而在2013年四月，当全郡内推广使用“预测性警戒”模型后，接下来一年的犯罪率反倒有所升高。犯罪率的攀升，主要归咎于无法高效地配置资源以及不准确的犯罪数据。
However, Kent Police had a slightly less straightforward experience. It ran a successful four-month trial starting in December 2012, but after rolling out predictive policing across the county in April 2013, recorded an increase in crime for the following year. It blamed the rise on a failure to deploy resources effectively and inaccurate crime data.
警察学院的研究负责人Rachel Tuffin说，“预测性警戒”的潜能令人十分感兴趣，但后续的试验必不可少。她解释道，“研究表明，预测分析能更精准的辨别热点区域；而其他的研究也显示，热点区域内针对性的警卫巡逻和相关问题的解决有助于抑制犯罪。英美的各方力量正在测试，预测与行动的结合在消除犯罪起因方面的效果。”
Rachel Tuffin, director of research at the College of Policing, says there is a strong interest in the potential of predictive policing, but further trials are needed. She explains: "Research shows predictive analysis can identify hotspots more accurately, and separate studies show targeting police patrol and problem-solving in hotspots can reduce crime. Forces in the UK and US are testing the effect of combining prediction with action to remove the causes of crime."
伦敦警方目前正承担着英国最大的试点工作——评价三类预测软件的效果，具体结果预计在2015下半年发表。
The Metropolitan Police is currently undertaking the UK’s biggest pilot, assessing three types of predictive software, and is expected to publish findings later in 2015.
4.伦理学难题
4. Ethical dilemmas
“预测性警戒”预示着法律执行的新时代。但一些反对者担心，它将导致公民自由的丧失。
Predictive policing promises a new era of law enforcement. But some critics are concerned it may lead to an erosion of civil liberties.
受害风险
Victimisation
反对者认为，这可能会增多警方在高犯罪率地区内毫无意义的停留与搜寻的机会。而支持者则争论道，这将帮助警方做出更公正的决断。
Critics say it may exacerbate unnecessary stop and searches in areas with high crime rates. Advocates argue it makes police decision-making less biased.
犯罪转移
Displacement
一些反对者担心，这些方法仅仅将犯罪推向别处，但2011年伦敦大学学院的调查并未发现此种推测的证据。
Some critics are concerned these methods simply move crime elsewhere, though research at University College London in 2011 found no evidence for this.
侵犯隐私
Privacy
公民自由的拥护者们争辩说，一旦“预测性警戒”开始实施，权威机构可能试图进一步收集各类敏感数据，最终导致对个人隐私的侵犯。
Civilliberties campaigners argue if predictive policing works, authorities may tryto gather further types of sensitive data, leading to invasions of privacy.
忽略犯罪起因
Ignores causes of crime
反对者们担心权威机构可能忽略引起犯罪的社会、经济和文化因素。而支持者们则认为，多种多样的解决方法是很有必要的。
Critics worry authorities may neglect the social, economic and cultural factors that cause crime. Advocates argue that a variety of approaches are necessary.

来源：BBC  翻译：吕日陶 陈榕
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